Every IEEPA tariff refund claim has two values: face value and present value. Understanding the difference is the foundation of any sell-versus-wait decision. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump (February 2026) declared IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional and established that CBP must refund duties collected under HTS headings 9903.01 and 9903.02 between February 2025 and February 2026. The $166 billion refund pool is real. The question is when you receive your share — and what that timing costs you.
Face Value vs. Present Value
Face value is the total IEEPA duties paid on your affected entries — the amount CBP owes you. Present value is what that future payment is worth in today’s dollars, discounted for time and risk.
A $1 million claim that will be paid in 24 months is not worth $1 million today. At an 8% annual discount rate, its present value is approximately $857,000. At 36 months, it drops to $794,000. The longer the expected wait, the wider the gap between face value and present value — and the more attractive an immediate offer becomes relative to holding.
Statutory interest under 19 USC 1505(c) partially offsets this erosion, but the IRS-set quarterly rates have historically been modest. For most importers, the interest accrual does not fully compensate for the time value of delayed capital, particularly when the processing timeline is uncertain.
The Discount Rate
The appropriate discount rate depends on your situation:
- Cost of capital — what does it cost you to borrow money or forego investment returns?
- Opportunity cost — what could you do with the capital if you had it today?
- Risk premium — how much uncertainty exists in the government timeline?
For most mid-market importers, the effective discount rate for IEEPA claims typically falls in the 8-15% range annually, depending on processing timeline assumptions and individual risk tolerance. Importers with access to high-return deployment opportunities — inventory expansion, supplier prepayment discounts, market entry — may have effective discount rates well above that range.
Companies that can deploy capital into operations generating 20%+ annual returns face a particularly stark calculation. Every month of delay represents foregone margin that no government interest payment will replace. The three scenarios where selling wins analysis explores this dynamic in detail.
The Hidden Costs of Waiting
Present value calculations often undercount the true cost of waiting. Administrative burden is real: managing protest filings under 19 USC 1514, tracking entry status across multiple brokers in the ACE system, responding to CBP correspondence, and monitoring CAPE developments all consume time and internal resources. For importers with hundreds or thousands of affected entries, the cumulative administrative cost can be material.
A claim sale eliminates these costs entirely — the buyer assumes all post-closing administrative responsibility. The CAPE portal filings, any necessary 19 USC 1520(d) post-summary corrections, and ongoing government correspondence transfer with the claim.
There is also the question of certainty. A present value calculation assumes the payment arrives on schedule. If CBP processing takes 36 months instead of 24, the present value drops further. If processing complications require re-filing or additional documentation, the timeline extends again. CBP has 2,500 staff responsible for 53 million entry lines across 330,000 importers. The risk-adjusted present value of waiting is almost always lower than the simple NPV calculation suggests.
Comparing to an Immediate Offer
When evaluating a claim sale offer, compare the offer price to the risk-adjusted present value of waiting — not to face value. Competitive market-rate offers vary per claim based on entry complexity, liquidation status, and portfolio size, but in many cases they may exceed the present value of a 24-36 month government timeline after accounting for processing risk and administrative costs. Our valuation methodology accounts for all of these variables at the entry level.
The seller’s guide provides a complete framework for this analysis. For importers with strong reinvestment opportunities, the comparison often favors immediate capital even at a meaningful discount to face value. The secondary market for government receivables provides established pricing benchmarks that inform competitive offer levels.
Not sure whether your entries qualify for a claim sale? The free screening tool at tariffrefundchecker.com can help determine eligibility. For importers who want to evaluate all paths — including self-filing — tariffresolution.com provides comprehensive assessments.
Ready to see the numbers for your specific claim? Request a confidential Impact Assessment — we calculate the present value comparison for your portfolio and present a firm, non-recourse offer within 48 hours.