Every IEEPA tariff refund claim has a calculable value based on validated entry data, time value assumptions, and processing risk factors. Following the Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump (February 2026), which declared IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, CBP must return duties collected under HTS headings 9903.01 and 9903.02 between February 2025 and February 2026. The $166 billion refund pool is real. The valuation question is what each importer’s share is worth today.
Step 1: Data Validation
The foundation is your entry data — ES-003 reports exported from CBP’s ACE portal or CF-7501 entry summary forms. We validate every line: HTS code classification, duty amount, entry date, and liquidation status. Only entries with confirmed IEEPA-affected HTS codes (9903.01xx and 9903.02xx) within the covered period are included.
Entries that fall outside the IEEPA scope — standard MFN duties, Section 301 tariffs, antidumping or countervailing duties — are flagged and excluded from the IEEPA valuation. This protects both parties from inflated claim estimates based on duties that are not subject to the Supreme Court ruling. Your customs broker can export the necessary data in minutes; the documentation guide details the specific fields and export process.
Step 2: Gross Recoverable Position
We calculate the total face value of all validated IEEPA entries. This includes the base duties paid plus estimated statutory interest under 19 USC 1505(c). Interest rates are set quarterly by the IRS and have varied between 3% and 8% annually over the relevant period.
The time value calculation is a meaningful component of total claim value — duties paid in early 2025 may have accrued over a year of statutory interest. Our models account for the compounding effect across the full holding period, which in some cases adds materially to the gross recoverable position. For entries approaching the 180-day protest deadline under 19 USC 1514, the urgency of establishing the government’s obligation adds additional time-sensitivity to the valuation.
Step 3: Risk Adjustment
Face value is adjusted for processing variables:
- Liquidation status — unliquidated entries have different risk profiles than liquidated entries and may be processed through 19 USC 1520(d) post-summary corrections rather than protests
- Processing timeline — estimated time to CBP disbursement based on current CAPE development status and CBP staffing of 2,500 personnel for 53 million entry lines
- Administrative complexity — number of entries, brokers, and tariff programs involved across EO 14257, EO 14195, EO 14193, and EO 14194
- Interest uncertainty — statutory interest calculations under 19 USC 1505(c) may be subject to adjustment
- Regulatory trajectory — the pace at which CBP implements refund procedures affects the expected timeline and, by extension, the present value of future disbursements
Each factor is weighted based on current market data and historical patterns from analogous government receivables. The secondary market for government receivables provides established pricing frameworks that inform these risk adjustments. Claims involving multiple overlapping tariff programs or broker errors require more granular analysis but are routinely valued within the same framework.
Step 4: Market Pricing
The risk-adjusted value is compared against current secondary market conditions for government receivables. IEEPA claims are a new asset class, but the pricing methodology draws on decades of precedent in bankruptcy claims, tax refunds, and class action settlements.
Market conditions for these receivables evolve as the refund mechanism matures. Early-stage claims — where CBP has not yet finalized its processing infrastructure — typically carry wider risk spreads than claims in programs with established disbursement histories. As the CAPE system becomes operational and initial refunds are processed, market pricing is expected to adjust accordingly. Importers considering their options should understand that timing affects not only the present value of waiting but also the market price available through a sale.
Customs brokers and trade attorneys who advise importers on valuation decisions can coordinate through the partner network at tariffpartners.com. For importers who want an independent eligibility check before engaging in a full valuation, the free screening tool at tariffrefundchecker.com provides an initial assessment of whether entries fall within the affected HTS codes and date range.
The Result
A firm, non-recourse acquisition offer with complete transaction terms, typically delivered within 48 hours of data submission. No contingencies, no hidden fees, no surprises. The closing documents are standardized and designed to protect both parties.
For importers who want to see how valuation informs the sell-versus-hold decision, our analysis of three scenarios where selling wins provides concrete frameworks.
Find out what your claim may be worth. Request a confidential Impact Assessment — the process is straightforward, and there is no obligation to accept. For importers who want to compare all recovery paths, tariffresolution.com provides comprehensive assessments.